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Buying a copy of Wii Fit, for me, is likely to be impossible next week. Aside from a heavy workload forcing me to pay attention to my Xbox 360, a colossal retailer screw-up is likely to result in anywhere from 1/4 to 1/3 of the Wii Fits intended for my area ending up on e-bay. I'm going to present this story to you guys basically as an anatomy of how units of hot Nintendo products meant for retail end up in the hands of scalpers en masse.

The story began, as so many do, in a GameStop. After spending a tiring evening shopping for a dress to wear to a cousin's wedding, I stopped by the larger of the two local GameStops to pick up a copy of Crosswords DS to keep me amused over the weekend.

My parents were with me, and they've been dieting and working out lately. My mother's lost something like 20 pounds, and my father's going on 40. When they saw the Wii Fit boxes hanging on display in the store, they got interested, proving Nintendo's marketing plans with this one are likely to succeed. The clerk was quick to chat them up while he checked me out, but when my dad asked about buying one, the clerk was forced to change his tune.

"Sorry, we've already sold through our first shipment. We were set to get eighty, and two guys walked in and pre-ordered forty each."

I was gobstopped. Wasn't that against GameStop's corporate policy? "You're kidding," I said. "Why did you let them do that?"

"Sorry, it was a lower-down associate," he said. I read between the lines: the probable scalpers had likely already paid for the Wii Fits in full, forcing the GameStop to let the absurd number of pre-orders per person stand despite the n00b employee's mistake.

After leaving the store, I wondered: what percentage of the Wii Fits meant for local shoppers in our area had ended up in the hands of scalpers thanks to that GameStop screw-up? Our town is has a population of roughly 35,000 people, with roughly six outlets in all that might sell Wii Fit. Another town with two outlets would be a twenty minute drive away, and then it would be roughly a forty minute drive to the next area with as many outlets as our town had.

I started placing calls. The smaller of the town's two GameStops is on good terms with me, since I buy a lot of games and the store is extremely well-run and staffed. There a staffer was willing to reveal that they were set to receive 40 units. They'd started a list with the names of likely local scalpers on it, and all fo the employees were under strict orders not to pre-sell more than five units per person for any reason. All of their units were pre-ordered, but at least to more than two different people.

Best Buy was my next stop. There a friendly manager hoping to hose the naughty competition was happy to reveal that the store was set to receive 50 units, and would probably have more units than other big box stores in the area, due to a contractual relationship between Best Buy and Nintendo. Best Buy had capped pre-orders at one per person, and only made 30 of the 50 units open to pre-order. 20 people were guaranteed a chance to buy Wii Fits when they walked in on the 20th.

The local Target couldn't reveal how many units they were set to receive on record, but a friendly employee suggested it was "probably in the neighborhood" of 40. Target policy didn't allow any pre-orders and capped sales at one per person.

Wal-Mart's employees had no idea how many they'd get, but knew they wouldn't receive their shipment until the 21st-- the day after all their competitors in the area would be selling the software. For all intents and purposes, Wal-Mart would have 0 units on launch day, and wouldn't know how many they'd sell the next day until they unloaded the shipment. Obviously, their policy was no pre-orders, one unit per person, and they were quick to point out that the mass buys at GameStop were very likely to be illegal and in violation of contracts with Nintendo. I was invited to come by on ship day and see how many showed up. My bet is the Wal-Mart will receive around 40 units, like the Target.

I put in a token call to our decrepit local K-Mart, a small and poorly-run store. Predictably, the staff had no idea when Wii Fit would show up or how many they'd get, but could confirm a policy of no pre-orders and a one per person cap. Though I'll need to double check on launch day, the size of the store makes me think it's unlikely that they'll receive the 40 units Target is getting. My estimate is around 30, and that's generous. A count as low as 10 or 20 is possible.

So let's do some math. Start with the 80 launch day Wii Fits the main GameStop store sold to the two scalpers. Add in the 40 units the other GameStop is getting, the 50 units from Best Buy, and the 40 from Target. Let's generously add in the 40 units Wal-Mart won't have until the 21st and the 30 units that are probably the most the K-Mart will get. That meant our town of 35,000 receive in all about 280 launch day Wii Fits, and about 30% of those have been sold to buyers who clearly intended to load them up in a truck and get them ready for e-bay. 70 additional units are tied up in pre-sells, so that'll be about 90 units available to walk-in buys on the 20th, and probably another 40 available on the 21st. Note that these estimates are all probably much more generous than the reality will be.

That's miserable for a town this size, and makes me think more heartland areas are getting shorted the same way-- and probably losing massive amounts of their shipments to scalpers due to similar mistakes. If you haven't secured a Wii Fit pre-order, do it now if you still can. If you can't, and you dont happen to be a major coastal retail area, then getting a Wii Fit anytime near its launch is going to be a pure game of chance, with bulk buyers stacking the odds against you. If Wii Fit is even half as popular as the Wii itself with people like my parents, we may be facing another year-long shortage madness.

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